We are living in age of disaster, marked by an increasing number and severity of devastating events worldwide. Allocating preparedness resources for these high probability, low frequency events is more critical than ever before, but what threats are the most important to prepare for? What are the most critical functions for government to protect? And how can governments make these decisions?

A disaster risk assessment answers these questions, providing the foundation for an ongoing cycle of disaster preparedness. These disaster risk assessments can take many forms; they can be as simple as a ten minute conversation by leadership prioritizing which hazards to attach resources to, or complex, involving murky calculations using large datasets. In 2018, the New York City Department of Health invented a new model for disaster risk assessment using the AHP. This talk will describe the methods and rationale of this model, as well as several unique features that may transform the way that risk assessments shape emergency preparedness work.